AGP Executive Report

UN Warning: UN envoy Hans Grundberg says Yemen is at the highest risk of sliding back into large-scale war since the 2022 truce, as fighting intensifies across Marib, Hadramout and Mocha and renewed Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping could pull Yemen deeper into the wider US-Iran standoff. Houthi-Saudi Escalation: Houthis again claim drone strikes on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery, saying the attack was in response to alleged Saudi violations of Yemen’s sovereignty; Saudi/Aramco have not commented beyond earlier incident details. Red Sea Security Push: Saudi Arabia’s 15-country maritime defense coalition is moving toward operational activation to protect Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea routes, while Yemen’s government-aligned forces report destroying Houthi boats near the western coast. US-Iran Pressure: The US says it can maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and will increase economic pressure as Hormuz and regional shipping remain under strain. Humanitarian Strain: UN relief chief Tom Fletcher warns Yemen’s humanitarian appeal is barely funded, with hunger rising and health services crumbling, and calls for more flexible donor support. Oil/Shipping Fallout: Oil prices swing on demand worries and Red Sea disruption fears as OPEC cuts its 2026 demand growth forecast and inventories rise.

Red Sea & Hormuz Pressure: Iran-backed Houthis kept up attacks on Yemen-linked shipping and Saudi interests as Iran rejected US claims of “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, while the UN urged dialogue to protect navigation in the Gulf and Red Sea. Taiz Frontline Fighting: In Taiz, at least one Yemeni government soldier was killed and another critically wounded in clashes with Houthis, as drones and missiles hit government-held areas and artillery targeted Houthi movements in Marib. Bab el-Mandeb Toll: A Houthi strike on the Bab el-Mandeb killed six crew members on a commercial vessel, including three Pakistanis; Indonesia said one crew member was missing and two were wounded. Mocha Escalation: Houthis launched fresh ballistic missile and drone attacks on Mocha, targeting gatherings and positions of Saudi-backed forces, with casualties reported among soldiers and civilians. Oman Oil Disaster: A massive spill from the grounded tanker Caroline Bezengi reached Omani beaches, with salvage teams boarding the stricken vessel as monsoon weather complicates containment; the slick is now among the worst in years. Online Crackdown: X suspended Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree’s account, citing rule violations.

Red Sea shipping crisis: Iran-backed Houthis kept up attacks on commercial traffic, with Yemen’s government reporting a strike on the Bab al-Mandeb that killed at least six, including four crew and two Yemeni rescuers, while Pakistan said three Pakistani nationals were among the dead in a separate incident. Civilian harm in Yemen: The Pentagon acknowledged U.S. airstrikes in Yemen killed 153 civilians and injured 243 in 2025, tied to three April 2025 operations, while 15 other incidents remain under review. Oman environmental threat: A sanctioned tanker spill near Oman has reached the mainland, with authorities warning it could affect up to 40km of coastline and threaten a marine nature reserve as cleanup is hampered by war conditions. Regional escalation: Houthis also claimed new strikes on Saudi-linked targets in Yemen, while Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council chief said there are no plans for a truce that “reproduces previous experiences.” Diplomacy pressure: UN officials urged talks to protect navigation rights in the Gulf and Red Sea, warning disruptions to shipping would worsen Yemen’s humanitarian situation.

Red Sea deaths and wider Yemen escalation: Yemen’s coastguard says Iran-backed Houthis killed six people in the Bab al-Mandeb after firing ballistic missiles at the commercial vessel Tihamah, including four crew members (three Pakistanis and one Indonesian) plus two members of Yemen’s National Resistance Forces; Yemen’s transport ministry also says a “double-tap” missile hit during rescue efforts, raising fears the Red Sea war is spreading beyond Yemen’s ports. Strait of Hormuz standoff: Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi urged Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian to restore free, safe navigation in Hormuz and press Houthis to show restraint, as Iran insists the waterway stays closed unless US demands are met. Energy squeeze: The IEA warns global oil supply will drop about 4% in 2026 and says oil stockpiles are rapidly depleting, with disruptions tied to Hormuz shutdown and Bab al-Mandeb attacks. Diplomacy stalls: An Iranian source says there were no Iran-US talks to extend a ceasefire, while Pakistan reports no progress as it pushes for renewed negotiations.

Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Toll: Yemen’s internationally recognized government says Iran-backed Houthis struck the Egyptian-owned cargo vessel Tihamah near Bab al-Mandeb, killing four crew members and two rescuers, with reports of additional injuries as a second strike hit during evacuation efforts. Shipping Pressure: The attacks come as Houthis warn of continued disruption and as the U.S. enforces a blockade tied to the Iran standoff, while regional shipping traffic through key chokepoints remains under strain. Hormuz Deadlock: Iran reiterates the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed unless the U.S. meets its demands, including ending the blockade and compensating for war damage—keeping oil markets jittery. Saudi Escalation Signal: A Houthi-linked drone strike reportedly hit Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery, with Saudi officials saying the fire was extinguished without casualties, raising fears the conflict is widening. Civilian Harm Claims: The Pentagon told Congress that U.S. strikes in Yemen in 2025 killed 153 civilians, underscoring the human cost as fighting and maritime attacks intensify. Humanitarian Update: WFP says 15,000 tons of South Korean rice arrived in Aden to support hunger relief for hundreds of thousands across Yemen.

Bab el-Mandeb Shipping Deaths: Yemen’s internationally recognized government says Iran-backed Houthis fired three ballistic missiles at the Yemeni-flagged cargo vessel Tihamah near Mocha, killing four crew members (three Pakistanis and one Indonesian) and wounding four others, with a further missile reportedly targeting rescue teams as they tried to evacuate the injured. Red Sea Escalation in Yemen: The same period saw renewed Houthi attacks on government-held areas, including claims of strikes on Marib and other fronts, raising fears the conflict could slide back toward wider civil war. Saudi Energy Under Pressure: Houthis also claimed a precision drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery, prompting a blaze that Saudi authorities said was extinguished without casualties—an escalation that tests Riyadh’s regional deterrence. Hormuz Talks Stall, Pressure Rises: As Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen without U.S. concessions and compensation, the U.S. and mediators trade signals, while shipping risk keeps prices and regional nerves elevated. Diplomatic Moves: Pakistan’s defense minister and interior minister are reported to be in talks with Iran as mediation efforts continue.

Houthi escalation in Yemen’s west coast: Yemen’s government says Houthis launched ballistic missiles at the Red Sea port city of Mocha, while earlier strikes killed at least seven and wounded dozens, with the Houthis also claiming drone/missile attacks on Saudi targets including Aramco’s Jizan refinery. Regional pressure around Hormuz: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the U.S. “corrects” its behavior, lifts the blockade, ends sanctions, releases frozen assets, and pays compensation for war damage—demands that are now colliding with Trump’s counter-move demanding Iran pay “50 years” of compensation. Oil and shipping ripple effects: With Hormuz still effectively closed, oil prices jump and diesel supply tightens; separately, Oman reports a massive spill from a grounded sanctioned tanker near its Hallaniyat reserve, covering nearly 400 sq km. UN warns Yemen aid at risk: The UN says Houthis removed telecom equipment from unstaffed offices in Sana’a, warning it could worsen Yemen’s humanitarian crisis. Local Sana’a sports: Yemen Telecom Football Championship (9th edition) is set to start next Saturday in Sana’a.

Houthi Attacks Escalate Yemen-West Coast: Yemen’s government says Houthis resumed missile-and-drone attacks on Mokha, hitting residential areas and prompting air defenses to intercept drones; the fighting follows a deadly strike on the port city earlier this weekend that killed civilians and injured dozens. Saudi Energy Under Fire: The Houthis claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery, with Saudi authorities saying a fire was extinguished and no injuries reported, as the attacks keep widening the Red Sea risk. Shabwa Frontline Pressure: In southeastern Shabwa, pro-government forces reported drone strikes that killed two soldiers and wounded others, underscoring intensifying clashes near the Shabwa–Marib border. Hormuz Standoff Tightens: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the U.S. “corrects” its behavior—ending the blockade, sanctions, threats, and paying compensation—while talks with Oman are described as progressing but not decisive. Oman Oil Spill Response: Oman is containing an oil spill from a tanker that ran aground near a protected marine area, with authorities saying the slick has affected about 390 square kilometers and plans are underway to reduce environmental risk. US Diplomatic Signal: The U.S. Embassy in Yemen reaffirmed support for maritime security and counterterrorism, warning that Iran-backed Houthi aggression threatens stability and Red Sea shipping lanes.

Red Sea Escalation in Yemen: Iran-backed Houthis renewed missile and drone attacks on Yemen’s western coast, hitting the government-held port city of Mokha (al-Makha) near Bab al-Mandab, with Yemen’s health ministry reporting at least 7 killed and around 30 wounded, including children, and warning strikes also hit a field hospital and threatened medical services. Port Attacks and Wider Threats: The Houthis said the Mokha barrage targeted Saudi troop concentrations and weapons depots, while Yemen’s military reported air defenses downed drones and intercepted an explosive boat; the renewed assault followed earlier strikes that damaged port infrastructure and commercial areas. Saudi Energy Targeting: In parallel, the Houthis claimed a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery, with Saudi authorities reporting a fire that was brought under control. US Support for Yemen: The US reaffirmed support for Yemen against “Iran-backed Houthi aggression,” highlighting maritime security and counterterrorism after a meeting in Riyadh with Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council chairman. Hormuz Standoff Drives the Backdrop: Across the region, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the US “corrects its behavior” and meets demands including ending sanctions, lifting the naval blockade, releasing frozen assets, and paying compensation—while Iran and Oman said shipping-lane talks are nearing final stages. Economic Fallout: Yemen’s fisheries sector said losses from the blockade and aggression have exceeded $15 billion, citing destroyed ports, disrupted production, and lost export revenues.

Red Sea Violence in Yemen: Iran-backed Houthis struck the government-held port of Mocha near Bab al-Mandab with missiles and drones, killing at least 7 and wounding 20 (reports also cite higher tolls), with damage to port buildings and nearby residential areas. Saudi Energy Hit: The Houthis also claimed a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery, triggering a fire that Saudi authorities said was quickly extinguished and caused no injuries. Escalation on Multiple Fronts: Yemen’s government forces reported unity and stepped-up security readiness after renewed Houthi attacks, while fighting continues to flare across western and eastern areas including Marib. Hormuz Standoff Ripples: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the U.S. “corrects” its behavior, demands sanctions relief, compensation, and an end to attacks on Iran and its regional allies; Oman-Iran talks are described as nearing final stages but depend on U.S. conditions. Regional Diplomacy: UN Security Council condemnation of Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia and commercial shipping drew welcome statements from Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain.

Marib Front: Yemen’s Defence Ministry says it intercepted two explosive-laden Houthi drones aimed at residential areas and displacement camps in Marib, with no casualties reported, as shelling and missile attacks continue to hit the city. Yemen-Houthi Escalation: The Yemeni armed forces also claim fresh operations against Houthi capabilities across multiple fronts, warning of responses after renewed attacks. Red Sea Security: Yemen’s Transport Ministry condemned a Houthi attempt to target an oil tanker at Mokha port with an explosive boat, saying patrols detected and detonated it before it reached the restricted zone. Humanitarian Health: Kuwait’s Red Crescent opened a specialized eye hospital in Marib under its “Kuwait Stands by You” campaign, expanding clinics, operating rooms, and inpatient services for residents and displaced people. Hormuz Standoff: Iran issued sweeping new conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, saying it will stay closed until the US “corrects its behaviour,” including compensation demands and sanctions relief, while the UAE accused Iran of targeting an ADNOC tanker in the strait. Diplomatic Pushback: Yemen’s Foreign Ministry welcomed UN Security Council condemnation of unauthorized Iranian flights and Houthi attacks on Saudi territory and commercial shipping, while Sana’a also criticized the UN council for violating the rights it claims to defend.

Yemen Escalation: Yemen’s army says it has launched multi-front attacks on Houthi positions and capabilities, warning it will respond “without hesitation” to any further targeting after renewed strikes on Marib and other areas. Marib Civilian Impact: A Yemeni official says the Houthis have resumed shelling civilian neighborhoods in Marib with missiles and drones, a day after reported deaths and injuries from earlier attacks; Marib remains home to millions of displaced people. UN Warning: The UN Security Council condemned the attacks and urged de-escalation, while the UN envoy Hans Grundberg warned Yemen faces a higher risk of renewed large-scale conflict than since the 2022 truce. Regional Spillover: The fighting is unfolding alongside wider Gulf tensions tied to the Iran–Oman Strait of Hormuz talks, with Iran saying a deal is close but reopening depends on US concessions, as shipping risks continue.

Yemen Conflict Escalation: UN envoy Hans Grundberg warned Yemen faces a greater risk of renewed large-scale conflict after fresh Houthi strikes in Marib and Hadramawt, alongside attacks on Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping and strikes on civilian infrastructure. Marib Civilian Toll: In Marib city, Houthi shelling hit residential areas and IDP camps, killing 2 and injuring 14, while missile and drone attacks targeted government military positions including the Third Military Region HQ. Armed Forces Operations: Yemen’s armed forces said they struck the Sahn al-Jin camp with missiles and drones, vowing “escalation for escalation” and targeting Saudi-linked mobilization. Regional Security Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement,” treating an attack on one as an attack on all, drawing Iran’s sharp pushback calling it “paper” security. Strait of Hormuz Watch: A US official said Iran-Oman talks are progressing toward reopening Strait of Hormuz, which could restore oil traffic and ease energy disruptions. UN Security Council: The UN Security Council condemned Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and commercial vessels and criticized unauthorized aircraft landings at Sana’a and Hodeidah airports. Local Sana’a Support Rallies: Residents in Sana’a province held rallies backing armed forces operations and the “blockade-for-blockade” stance.

Marib Civilian Toll: Yemen’s internationally recognized government says Houthi missile and drone strikes hit residential areas and displacement camps in Marib, killing 2 civilians and injuring 14, while authorities ordered hospitals to stay on high alert after reports of additional attacks. Frontline Escalation: The same wave of fighting includes drone attacks on government military sites in Marib, with officials also reporting deaths among government forces and clashes across eastern and central Yemen as the ceasefire-era lull fades. Regional Security Shock: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement,” pledging that an attack on one is an attack on all—an effort framed as collective deterrence amid rising fears of coordinated Iran-backed actions, including from Yemen’s Houthis. Gulf Fallout: Saudi Arabia warned of imminent coordinated strikes involving Houthis and Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, while the broader conflict continues to rattle shipping and energy routes tied to Yemen’s Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb corridors.

Border Fallout in Najran: Saudi Arabia’s coalition says Houthi attacks on Najran injured 11 civilians on Thursday, including seven Saudis, a Yemeni, two Egyptians and a Pakistani; a woman and a 4-year-old child suffered burns, and Riyadh calls the shelling indiscriminate and a violation of humanitarian law. Deadliest Yemen Strikes: The same escalation followed reports that Houthi missile and drone attacks hit Yemeni government camps in Marib and Hadramout, killing at least 30 troops and possibly far more, with officials warning the toll could rise. Wider Regional Threat: Saudi officials warn of imminent coordinated attacks by Iran-backed Houthis and Iraqi militias, under IRGC supervision, targeting civilian and economic sites such as energy infrastructure, ports and airports—while Saudi says it will take “all necessary measures” to respond. Red Sea Pressure, Oil Jitters: As Houthi actions keep disrupting shipping and tanker routes, markets react to renewed Middle East risk; oil prices climb amid Hormuz-related uncertainty, even as Iran and Oman signal progress on a Strait of Hormuz framework.

Houthi Escalation in Yemen: Houthi missile and drone attacks on government military camps in Hadramout and Marib killed at least 30 soldiers and wounded dozens, in what officials call the deadliest escalation since 2022. Red Sea Pressure on Saudi Shipping: The Houthis renewed claims of striking Saudi-linked tankers, including a ballistic missile attack on the Wafa near Yanbu and another in the Gulf of Aden, while UKMTO reported explosions near a tanker southeast of Aden. Hormuz Talks and Oil Mood: Iran and Oman say they’ve agreed route coordinates for Strait of Hormuz shipping, but reopening still hinges on the U.S. ending its port blockade; markets reacted with oil easing or holding around the $80 level as investors weigh whether traffic will resume. Regional Security Ripples: Gulf stocks slid as shipping fears returned, and analysts warn that proxy attrition may be part of a broader Iranian strategy to buy time and keep multiple fronts active. Diplomacy Watch: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif is set to visit Saudi Arabia amid heightened Gulf tensions and after joining a Saudi-led Red Sea naval coalition aimed at countering Houthi threats.